Handicap betting is designed to attract two-way business when there is a big favourite. Manchester City are 2/9 with William Hill to beat Arsenal at home on Saturday which will only entice the money buyers and big staking punters to back the current Premier League champions.
However, the regular bettor may be interested in the 8/11 that Betfred are offering for City to win by more than one goal. That means any win by a margin of at least two goals make City a winner on the handicap martket. They have the form at the Etihad from last season to do just that.
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Past and Current Form
The Manchester club played 19 matches in the Premier League at their own stadium in 2020/21. They scored 43 goals and conceded 17 for a goal difference or 26. That equates to an average winning margin of 1.37 goals even though they failed to win 6 home matches.
City’s overall goal difference for the full campaign was 51, which equates to 1.34 on average. That means when City win a fixture the margin of victory is usually at least one goal. Obviously these are averages but on current form Arsenal look there for the taking.
The London outfit are currently second from bottom after two defeats in two matches in which they failed to find the net and let in four goals. Two-nil reverses against Brentford on the road and Chelsea at home do not augur well for a trip north to play against the sky blue side in Manchester.
City lost their opening fixture 1-0 to Tottenham which was out of character. More typical was the 5-0 thrashing of Norwich in their first outing at home. Their opponents are bottom of the league but only on goal difference from Arsenal.
Norwich have got into the habit of being an up and down club and an immediate return to the Championship already looks on the cards. Arsenal have the money to avoid that fate but mid-table security could be their destiny this season.
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A Look at the Coaches
A visit to the champions has come at the wrong time and a crushing defeat may put Mikel Arteta under pressure to keep his job. He is the Evens money favourite to be the next manager to leave his post and that could be sooner rather than later.
Pep Guardiola is the outsider in that market at 80/1 but I wouldn’t be placing that bet with your money. He looks committed to Manchester City until they win the Champions League, the Holy Grail of European football.
That could be imminent after the arrival of Jack Grealish and the potential move for Harry Kane, possibly the two best players in the Premier League. However, the immediate job is securing three home points against Arsenal this weekend.
That can be achieved with a win by two goals or more so they cover the one goal handicap and that could even be done with something in hand and they are 2/1 minus 2 goals which is a feasible outcome.