The York Ebor Festival begins this Wednesday (August 18th). There will be huge crowds and betting turnover for a four day fixture which culminates in the Ebor, which is the richest Flat handicap in Europe and a huge sporting occasion in Yorkshire.
We like Saldier at 10/1 with Betfred to give Willie Mullins his second win in the race and complete the 2021 Galway Plate/Ebor double which has never been achieved before. The trainer has a good record in UK long distance handicaps and the Ebor is run over one mile and almost six furlongs.
The Ebor is the title race of a meeting that brings together the best horses in Europe in Group races and competitive big-field handicaps such as the Ebor. The Group 1 Juddmonte Stakes on the opening day is one of the best Flat races of the season based on the ratings.
Mishriff has the highest rating and the King George runner-up is suited to the course and race distance of one mile, two furlongs and 56 yards. William Hill are paying one quarter the odds for 2 places each way bets.
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The Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Thursday) is a Group 1 race for fillies and mares aged three and older and the race distance is 1 mile, three furlongs and 188 yards. Over the last eight years, Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden have both won the race three times.
Love obliged a year ago but that horse is taking on Mishriff in the Juddmonte with a handy three pounds fillies allowance. Snowfall is the clear pick on the ratings for the Yorkshire Oaks and is on offer at 2/5 with MansionBet to give O’Brien another win.
The Nunthorpe Stakes (Friday) is the third and final Group 1 contest of the week. It is unique for a Group race because geldings aged two are eligible. The juveniles receive a huge age allowance of up to 24 pounds but Kingsgate Native was the last two-year-old to win the five furlongs race in 2007.
Suesa is the best horse on the Official Ratings while Golden Pal is not far behind on form and the figures. Golden Pal is trained by Wesley Ward in the United States and his sprinters should always be respected in the UK. He targets the major sprints and Frankie Dettori usually rides his runners.
However, a much more speculative bet is Que Amoro who has won over the course and distance. That was in a handicap but the horse has won at Class 1 level. Que Amoro can be backed at 20/1 with Betway and each way bets will be settled at one fifth the odds for three places.
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So, to the Ebor on Saturday, a race in which often a Group horse is running in a handicap. Horses aged four and older are eligible but only three four-year-old have won the race this century. The most popular winning age since 2000 is five with nine wins.
The last nine winners have carried nine stones or over. But the race has a much more limited range of weights than in the past. Only five of the 21 runners in 2020 were allocated a weight of less than nine stone. The days of a low-weighted unexposed animal prevailing in the Ebor are in the past.
The Ebor is a highly competitive betting race ad here are some betting trends over the last 10 years:
- Average price of the winner: almost 15/1.
- No winning favourites.
- Range of winners: 5/1 to 33/1.
- Three single-figure odds winners .
- Seven double-figure odds winners.
- Most popular odds range: four winners from 11/1 to 16/1,
Saldier is the form pick but Hamish is aged five, carries nine stones eight pounds and is a best priced 14/1 with William Hill so must be the trends horse to back to win the Ebor at York on Saturday.